Prostitution and Human Trafficking: A model-based exploration and policy analysis

The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to explore and provide insights related to the effects of proposed policies is presented in this paper. Using the simulation model, a ‘quick and dirty’ policy analysis is first of all performed, and preliminary conclusions are drawn. These preliminary conclusions are further tested under uncertainty, using two different but relatively similar simulation models. The main conclusions are that demand side measures are necessary, but not sufficient. The topic is so complex and uncertain that simple (combinations of) basic policies will not hold in all circumstances, which is why this topic requires further exploration and policy testing under deep uncertainty.